"Always" is a bad word in poker. If
an expert ever uses the word 'always', and really
means it, then you just might question their expertise.
Regardless of what might be the best play in a
particular hand, there is a situation when doing
the contrary might get more favorable results.
Almost everyone is aware of the situation where
AA should be folded; at the end of a Multi-table
Tournament, and there are three players left with
roughly equal stacks. Player A goes all-in. Player
B calls. You look at your hole cards and find
AA. If you call, you can expect to lose only 40%
of the time. If you fold you will make at least
Second 99% of the time. A fold has the highest
expected value.
There are other situations, extreme of course,
when "always" doesn’t apply. Let’s
look at just two more.
You are the Big Blind. The first player to act
raises, and every one calls. When you look at
your hole cards you find 7,2 off-suit. Should
you call? Pot odds are 19:1. This would be an
excellent opportunity to vary your play. Call
and hope for the 'dream flop'.
Situation two involves Pot-limit Omaha Hi/Lo
and the nut low. Five players limps in to see
the flop of K,4,8. It is checked around, and the
turn is another K. Player A puts in a small bet
and gets three callers. The river is a 3. Player
A puts in a pot-sized bet, player B calls, and
player C raises the pot. You hold A,2 for the
nut low and no high. In this situation a call
will cost you more than a fold. Someone has you
at least quartered, and even though you will win
a portion of the pot. You will actually lose money.
A fold has a better expected value.
So the next time an expert suggest that you "should
always play a hand a certain way", again,
you probably ought to reevaluate your opinion
of their advice.
